For meaningful change to occur in each of these five areas, vision must be cast and sustained at every level:

– the data in context

The research phase included a survey youth leaders filled out, data collected from various denominations about their whole networks, and about 100 personal phone calls to key youth leaders in 100 different locations to concurrently survey a wider picture to find groups we weren’t aware of, while investigating dynamics related to youth leader unity and school groups.

Data: Only about 33,000 Year 7–13 young people are connected to a church youth group, while there are 471,000 in our nation’s schools.

• High school only (Years 9–13): approximately 24,000 out of 324,000
• Intermediate age only (Years 7–8): approximately 9,300 out of 147,000

Comment:

The scale of our operation as churches is not insignificant. The Faith in Action Report from 2023 (faithinaction.org.nz) noted 3,213 church entities, with 11,989 church staff (5,678 full time), and $1.9 billion in annual revenue, $717.6 million of which came from donations.

With our scale as a united body noted, and much good work already being done — what united strategies exist for a vision as straightforward as gospel outreach to our young people nationwide? While our efforts remain constrained to what we can control through individual churches, denominations and organisations, no such national vision will come about.

This is precisely why the national youth leaders behind this survey have united. This is what they want to see changed. This is why this survey was undertaken — to create a benchmark. Only about 1 in 14 students are currently connected to a church youth group. How could we get this back to something like 1 in 7?

A known decline

Relational research by the Shining Lights Trust in 2016 and 2017 engaged conversations with long-standing pastors in approximately 60 cities and towns across the nation. Each was asked to estimate the total number of youth groups and potential attendance in the mid-1990s, and to contrast that with the present time. The conclusion was that New Zealand youth ministry attendance had fallen to as low as one quarter of what it was 20 years prior — or at minimum, a two-thirds decline.

As one example, consider a town with 1,000 students in its high school — with an estimated 180 in a youth group in 1990 and 120 in 2005, despite a known low of just 25 in that location around 2016. At the current national average of 1 in 14, there should be approximately 71 of those 1,000 students attending a youth group in that community today.

Denominational data has evidenced further decline since that time — one example showing a 40% drop across the recent decade.

While there is no hard data, few would question that New Zealand Christian youth ministry is attending at around 25% of what it was 25 years ago — though the extent of this decline will vary by location.

A possible cause

What if this decline was not only the result of changing culture, but also of our failure in some of the fundamentals of Christian discipleship and ministry related to the gospel?

• Equipping — Might we have become too weak in equipping believers for ministry? In contrast to the 1990s, gospel equipping was considerably more common — even if sometimes narrow in scope. Involvement in Beach Missions was widespread among youth ministries nationwide, giving young people hands-on experience in outreach to their peers. Larger united gospel youth outreach events were common, with clear and creative gospel communication modelled.
• Events — In the 1990s, Youth For Christ centres in nearly every region ran large outreach events at least quarterly. Youth Alive did similar. YFC Touring Teams (Certain Sounds to high schools and Y1 to intermediates) performed in most schools annually, with weekend concerts at which the gospel was clearly articulated. Regional gospel talent competitions existed, feeding into the Capital Teen Convention held annually in venues like the Michael Fowler Centre in Wellington. The creative arts had been wisely claimed for the gospel, with thousands of young people involved and their peers turning out to watch performances at local youth outreach events. Most youth leaders today have never seen these kinds of events modelled.
• Schools — In the 1990s, school groups existed in most high schools across the nation and were networked at a national level. As culture changed, the “adult-led, student-supported” model faded. A new approach — “student-led, adult-supported” — was needed, but adapting proved difficult. Today, no such national network exists

A question worth asking

The gathered national Christian youth leaders behind this survey are asking: what might happen if we decided to restore a focus on:

• Geographic youth leader unity
• Equipping 100% of young people for outreach conversations
• Christian youth unity in schools
• Wider-reaching united gospel events in every location

This group recognises that no individual denomination has enough influence to make this happen alone. No individual national youth outreach organisation does either. But together — along with local churches in every location — we could.

Data: Just 77% equipping is a startling gap. Just 15% equipping 3+ times annually equates to just 3,600 equipped out of 24,000 in a youth group, with 324,000 youth in our high schools to reach out to. Meanwhile, the evidences of health in the 15% who equip point toward possible clear benefits.

Comment: Outreach equipping is a most basic part of discipleship. In fact, it could be questioned whether ‘discipleship’ was even close to being healthy wherever a solid focus on the very mission of the Church is not at the core. This is Jesus’ heartbeat! We are surely responsible to equipp the saints not only for the work of the ministry (Ephesians 4), but for their God-given mission (Matthew 28).This reflects a neglect of the highest magnitude – and yet one that has become our status quo.

Furthermore, the best people to reach young people are young people themselves. Employing youth staff to reach youth isn’t the solution. Equipping youth is.

• An encouraging pattern: The 23% who do provide outreach equipping averaged five weeks of focus annually — a healthy pattern that exists to be learned from and replicated across all other groups.
• However, 8% equipped only one or two times annually. The data didn’t evidence results from this. This leaves just 15% achieving a measurable effect. What effect?
• If we consider just that 15%, their leaders are 23% more likely to value local youth leader unity, 57% more likely to have a young adults group, and 24% more likely to have an intermediate group (76% → 94%). Furthermore, as could be expected, their groups are larger, having a remarkable 22 more young people on average. Furthermore, awareness of local school groups was more than double among youth groups running three or more weeks of outreach equipping — 88% compared to 43% among those running none or just one to two weeks — alongside increased combined events, both explored further in this report.
• For single sentence summary of the current situation: If 15% are meaningfully equipped, this equates to approximately 3,600 of the 24,000 young people in our nation’s youth groups — with a mission field of 324,000 high school students to reach out to. This is grossly inadequate.

• Regarding our hearts: Knowing the equipping of the saints is fundamental to achieving the mission Jesus gave us of making disciples, what if we were to humbly acknowledge a failure — and choose to change?
• As an idea: What if church leaders nationwide were to unite around a vision of seeing 100% of youth groups equipping their young people (3+ weeks of focus) with conversational, storytelling and gospel skills every year?
• As a process: What if denominational conferences for both adult leaders and youth leaders discussed this — putting the equipping of young people at centre stage through primary session talks, in contrast to side seminars? It will take church leaders of all ages, working together, to change the behavioural patterns reflected throughout this study.

A goal: Conversational outreach equipping in every youth group, every year.

Data:

45% of youth leaders are not connected to any local united youth leaders’ gathering in their city or town. 48% are connected to a local geographic youth leaders group. Of these, only 42% of these groups meet six or more times annually — thereby bringing a regularity and momentum to their relationships. This is to say, only around 20% of all youth leaders are in a geographic unity group that meets regularly enough to have the potential of momentum – in contrast to youth leaders who might just have a coffee together twice a year.

The significance of this is that those who meet regularly, connecting six or more times per year, are twice as likely to be aware of or connected to a regular local school group, and twice as likely to be involved in regular combined events (four or more per year). This is to say, the unity of youth leaders does corelate to the scope and momentum of youth outreach in a city or town.

Comment:

• A clear correlation: If we want outreach equipping, school groups and united outreach events strengthened, supporting the regular gathering of youth leaders in our nation’s cities and towns — meeting with the shared purpose of achieving the mission Jesus has given them — is an obvious and needed action point
• A bonus: Beyond what is captured in this data, it is also likely that youth leaders who gather regularly are more encouraged and supported in their ministry lives as a result.
• How change might be achieved: Pastors and other mature Christians who recognise the missional significance of youth leader unity could catalyse this by offering to host and cater a gathering, if a local youth leader is willing to invite peers from across their city or town.
• A vision for a catering pattern to help deliver the desired result: A home-cooked bacon and egg breakfast in a church lounge or home near the start of each school term, or pizzas for an evening gathering, is easy. The point here to establish from the outset a pattern of meeting in a private location — rather than a café — with good food that creates space to pause together, enabling strengthened relationships and uninterrupted time.
• The agenda is simple: (a) They unite, (b) to pray (c) about what could be done together to reach the young people of their city or town that could not be done apart.

A goal: Youth leaders intentionally connecting at least six times annually — or maybe twice per school term as a model — in every New Zealand city and town that has a high school.

Data: 17% of schools with Year 9–13 students have an identified Christian group — yet 51% of youth leaders are unaware of and therefore unconnected to a local school group, while only 22% of existing school groups engage in intentional outreach efforts.

Of the 544 high schools with Year 9–13 students, this survey identified 92 school groups. Of these only around 25 have any intent to engage in outreach. While there will be school groups not identified through this process (we estimate that a closer study might reveal about 130 school groups), the numbers and patterns revealed point to a significant gap.

Comment:

• A significant connection to note: Youth leaders are typically the ones who cast vision for school groups and support them. Youth leaders who are aware of groups are likely — knowingly or not — catalytic to both the existence and health of those groups.
• An important detail: The regularity of meetings is a notable factor in the data. Nearly half of all school groups that exist do not meet weekly. Groups that meet irregularly are unlikely to develop clear goals, momentum or meaningful outcomes.
• A strong correlation to outreach equipping: 88% of youth leaders giving three or more weeks annually to outreach equipping were aware of local school groups — more than double the 43% awareness among those giving none or 1-2 weeks, and well above the 49% overall average. Where young people are equipped with basic gospel and conversational skills, they naturally perceive the spiritual need of their peers — motivating unity in schools to do something about it. National youth leaders, local pastors and local youth leaders all have a role to play in casting this vision.
• The significance of youth unity to youth outreach: Where spiritual conversations are being initiated in schools, non-church young people are caused to think about spiritual things. This naturally generates increased interest in Christianity, increased openness to invitations to youth group events, and increased receptivity to the gospel when it is communicated. As the saying goes, ‘conversations that start in school continue in youth group.’ Youth unity in schools is catalytic.
• A need for support: Case studies demonstrate that a small amount of support and encouragement can make a meaningful difference. While this study did not focus on this point, the significance of adult support to young people who lead groups in their schools cannot be underestimated. At its core, the vision in supporting youth is that they (a) unite, (b) to pray, (c) about what they might do among their peers to catalyse basic spiritual awareness and interest. God can lead each school group to its own ideas, while stories shared from other locations can inspire.

Data: While 85% of youth groups participate in combined events, only 16% of those events are gospel-focused. However, 33% of all youth groups were involved in at least one outreach event during the year. Youth group unity is therefore primarily oriented around ‘gathering’, with comparatively little priority given to ‘outreach’ — even while present in a third of groups.

Comment: This unity is primarily around gathering, with low priority given to outreach.

• It is worth noting that many of the current generation of youth leaders have never seen a focused, creative, gospel-preaching youth event modelled — as was common two to three decades ago.
• As noted earlier, data demonstrates a direct correlation between youth leader unity and combined events. Youth leader unity is a starting point.
• While seemingly rare today, creative and gospel-preaching combined youth events can still connect with and speak meaningfully to young people. Current models of this exist.
• • It also remains true that a crowd attracts a crowd. Where youth leaders unite and commit to running regular combined events — quarterly or similar — momentum will build and attendances will grow.

A goal: Creative combined youth events at least four times per year — including some with a clear gospel-communication focus — in every city and town with a high school.